Why it’s ‘difficult to predict’ how Circle’s NYSE listing plays out

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Stablecoin issuer Circle’s expected listing on the New York Stock Exchange tomorrow comes roughly four years after another crypto milestone: Coinbase’s public market debut.

I wrote yesterday about how the apparently solid institutional demand for Circle doesn’t necessarily spell out what will happen once CRCL shares list.

“It’s difficult to predict the precise impact of this listing,” said Fineqia senior associate Matteo Greco. “Back in 2021, there was widespread belief that Coinbase’s stock would soar following its Nasdaq debut. The outcome proved quite different.”

Coinbase’s valuation at the time of its direct listing in April 2021 was widely considered to exceed fair value, Greco told me. And the timing was “unfortunate.”

COIN shares opened at $381 but closed at $328 on day one, Yahoo data shows. Though BTC reached a new high in November 2021, that was the beginning of a bear market. Coinbase stock dipped below $50 at times in mid-2022.

Although the stock has recovered to around $260 today, early investors have effectively been underwater for four-plus years, Greco noted.

With stablecoin use cases gaining steam and proposed US legislation on the table, the timing for Circle’s listing appears strong. Still, forecasting how CRCL shares will move on the NYSE is challenging, Greco argued.

“The main factor will be its valuation relative to what market participants deem to be its fair value,” he said.

The $7.2 billion valuation Circle is targeting (given the Monday filing upsizing its IPO) is below the $7.7 billion valuation it got in an April 2022 funding round. The final IPO price is reportedly expected Wednesday evening.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel pointed out that the $7.2 billion valuation implies a 14.3x multiple on annualized first quarter EBITDA; Coinbase and Robinhood trade at about 30x their estimated 2025 EBITDA.