VanEck warns Bitcoin firms on dilution as stock nears NAV

Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, is urging companies with Bitcoin treasuries to adopt stricter capital management practices as their stocks approach net asset value.

In a X post on June 16, Sigel warned that continued share issuance near net asset value could harm shareholders rather than benefit them. NAV refers to the net value of a company’s entire Bitcoin (BTC) holdings is divided by the total number of outstanding. 

It helps investors understand how much Bitcoin backs each share. A company may issue shares and use the money received to purchase more Bitcoin if a stock trades above NAV, increasing the value of each share. But once the stock trades at or near NAV, new share issuance stops being accretive and can instead dilute shareholders’ stake in the company’s Bitcoin.

Sigel noted that no public Bitcoin treasury company has traded below NAV for an extended period, but some are now approaching that level. He highlighted several steps for companies to protect value if this gap closes further.

These include pausing at-the-market stock issuances when a company’s stock trades below 0.95 times NAV for ten or more consecutive trading days, prioritizing buybacks when Bitcoin rises but the stock price does not, and launching a strategic review if the discount persists. 

He also argued that executive compensation should focus on growing NAV per share, rather than the size of the Bitcoin position or share count. “Once you are trading at NAV, shareholder dilution is no longer strategic. It is extractive,” he warned.

The warning comes at a time of rapid adoption of Bitcoin treasury strategies. A June 2025 report by Standard Chartered found that 61 public companies now hold 673,897 BTC or 3.2% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Among those, 58 companies are trading above their NAV, a figure referred to as mNAV, showing continued investor interest in the strategy.

mNAV is a metric that measures a company’s market value divided by its Bitcoin NAV. An mNAV greater than 1.0 indicates are paying a premium to access equity-based Bitcoin exposure. An mNAV below 1.0, on the other hand, indicates that the company’s shares are trading below its Bitcoin holdings.

Strategy is still the largest corporate Bitcoin holder with over 582,000 Bitcoin. In June, its mNAV stands at 1.91. The business recently added 74,000 Bitcoin in just two months and issued $250 million in preferred stock to finance further purchases.

The two companies with the lowest sentiment are Semler Scientific and Trump Media & Technology Group, whose equity premiums to NAV are -10% and -16%, respectively.