Macro Takes Over, Bitcoin Takes a Breather

Last week, while headlines screamed of nuclear escalation, trade ruptures, and political drama, Bitcoin held its ground with only a minor pullback.

Bitcoin Holds Steady as Macro Heats Up

Bitcoin traded up early last week before fading to finish roughly 3.5 % lower than last Friday. Bitcoin and equities stalled last week, as the focus moved decidedly towards macro factors—by macro I mean geopolitics and macroeconomics—at play. In order of importance, let’s briefly go through what’s happening outside of the crypto bubble.

On Sunday, June 1, 2025 the world stepped closer to Nuclear conflict as Ukraine’s SBU launched Operation Spiderweb: 117 small drones destroyed or damaged approximately 41 nuclear-capable long-range bombers. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov vowed retaliation “at a time of our choosing,” while renewed missile salvos hit Kyiv and Kharkiv. Suffice it to say, peace talk momentum has stalled. One disturbing aspect of this is how many Western media outlets are framing this attack with potential nuclear retaliatory consequences as daring and audacious, Risky and reckless seems more appropriate.

Aside from increasing the risk of nuclear escalation, this attack will surely affect international shipping as governments wrestle with the new threat vector of shipping containers full of drones.

Also on Sunday, June 1, 2025, the U.S.-China tariff truce frayed as Washington claimed that Beijing had “totally violated” May’s 90-day tariff-rollback deal, which Beijing flatly rejected. Over the course of the week, the détente swung from finger-pointing and recriminations, to a tentative reboot on Thursday.

The U.S.-China situation continues to stress supply chains. Container freight from Shanghai to LA shot up 57% last week. On Wednesday, a coalition of U.S. automakers and suppliers urged the White House to counter China’s rare-earth export curbs. They warned of imminent parts shortages.

Finally, there was the public falling out of Donald Trump and Elon Musk, an unraveling that was written in the stars! The feud took place on the pair’s favorite medium of communication, social media. One silver lining to two of the most powerful Americans clashing online is that Bitcoin is benefiting from Elon’s barbs, with some believing Musk is on the path to becoming a Bitcoin maxi!

Aside from the silver lining, this all might sound bearish for Bitcoin and risk assets, because at the very least it reveals how uncertain the times we are living in are. However, as stated at the beginning, Bitcoin is down a paltry 3.5%. There are specific reasons to be bullish Bitcoin, which I have written about and spoken about on Token Narratives ad nauseum.

There are also macro reasons to be bullish too. I agree with Ram Ahluwalia, CEO and Founder of Lumida who summarized it best on the always excellent podcast Bits + Bips:

I think these geopolitical risks are nothing burgers… Just zoom out. What drives asset prices, especially stock prices, is earnings growth. We just saw 12% year-over-year earnings growth. Interest rates. I think [they’ve] topped out. There’s a scare that’s behind us now. Third is inflation. Well, we got disinflation. Core PCE came in just fine. And then we’ve seen peak fear around tariffs. That’s receding.

A strange week indeed. Bitcoin took a breather while macro blustered, but I expect to see a rested Bitcoin back in the spotlight soon.