Bitcoin rally faces retail exit from U.S. and Korean markets, but whales double down: Analysis

Bitcoin’s July rally appears to be losing steam among retail investors, with selling activity rising sharply across U.S., Korean, and Binance-based retail segments, even as whales accumulate heavily.

A July 22 analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain points to waning demand from U.S. and Korean traders. The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price gap between Coinbase and global exchanges, has stayed flat or negative despite Bitcoin’s (BTC) push to an all-time high of $122,838 on July 14.

This indicates that U.S. investors are likely taking profits rather than accumulating. Similarly, the Korea Premium Index shows local traders are selling Bitcoin at a discount to global prices, reflecting low demand and continued distribution behavior.

This regional trend aligns with platform-level behavior. According to another analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha, Binance’s retail inflows surged from $12 billion to over $16 billion in the 30-day sum, indicating that retail traders are depositing Bitcoin and are likely to sell.

This mirrors a pattern observed earlier this year when Bitcoin climbed from $78,000 to $111,000. Retail investors exited during the uptrend and missed out on further gains.

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Further confirmation comes from Binance’s net taker volume, which has turned negative. That suggests that sellers are still in control, either closing out long positions or opening new short positions, even though Bitcoin is near its all-time highs.

On the other hand, whales appear to be aggressively accumulating. Whale wallets monitored by Whales Screener took out almost $200 million in Bitcoin and over $400 million in Ethereum (ETH) from exchanges in the 24 hours leading up to July 22. These outflows usually indicate long-term conviction and a reluctance to sell into the current rally.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $117,945, down 0.2% over the previous day and 4% from its record high. The cryptocurrency is still up by 14% over the past 30 days.

Despite the brief retracement, Bitcoin remains in a confirmed uptrend on the daily chart. The price is still above the 21-day exponential moving average and the mid-June ascending trendline.

The relative strength index is near neutral at 57, meaning that there’s still room for growth without the market becoming overbought. Support is found near $115,000, while resistance at $120,000–$122,800 remains critical for any breakout attempt.

In a bullish scenario, Bitcoin may consolidate above $117,000 before retesting and potentially breaking its record high. A bearish reversal would be indicated by a sustained breakdown below $113,500, which would expose $108,000 as the next important support.

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