a rebound to $3430 is on the cards?

Buying pressure in gold subsided on Friday last week, as gold dropped more than 1000 points from $3403, courtesy of the NFP data favoring the U.S. dollar.

Russia has launched one of the war’s largest air attacks, and this news may bring more inflow into gold, and prices may rise.  

The bias in gold is still buy, and the price has already tapped its buying levels.  Let’s discuss the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in this XAUUSD weekly forecast from June 9th to June 13th, 2025.

Previous week’s forecast recap of crypto.news

In the previous week’s forecast, we marked the weekly level and the opening gap in gold from where the price has moved up 236 points so far. 

Now let’s start by discussing the key economic events of this week and their possible impact on the price of XAUUSD.

Key economic events of this week

Some significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week that are expected to impact XAUUSD. 

Wednesday, June 11: CPI Information

• Core CPI m/m (0.3%) vs the prediction of 0.2%: Unexpectedly high core inflation might make the USD stronger and put downward pressure on XAU/USD.
• CPI m/m (0.2% expected against 0.2% actual): Probably neutral for gold, as anticipated.
• CPI year-over-year (2.5% vs. 2.3% forecast): A hawkish Fed tone and a negative outlook for gold could result from higher inflation.

Thursday, June 12: Jobs & PPI Data:

• Core PPI m/m (0.3% vs. -0.4%): Gold is down, but rate increase bets may be revived by a rebound in producer prices.
• PPI m/m (0.2% vs -0.5% earlier): A positive PPI bolsters inflation worries and is somewhat pessimistic for gold.
• Unemployment Claims (241K as opposed to the projected 247K): Reduced claims suggest a robust job market, a bullish USD, and a dismal outlook for gold.

Friday, June 13: UoM Information

• UoM Consumer Sentiment Prelim (52.5 vs. expectation of 52.2):  A little better sentiment is bad for gold and indicates economic resiliency.
• Initial UoM Inflation Forecasts: If higher, gold may benefit from inflation hedge appeal; if lower, gold may suffer.

Gold HTF Overview

The HTF level in gold has formed a significant range, with the high end at $3357 and the low end at $3193. A breakout of either side and a retest will confirm the direction of gold in the coming weeks for medium-long-term investors.

Gold Forecast for June 9th to June 13th

Gold is currently bullish in 4h timeframes and above. However, it is showing bearish momentum in 1h and below. Currently, gold is rising after reaching a crucial point of interest (POI), as discussed above. Losing the marked support on the chart below can push it to internal liquidity of $3245, while a breakout above can take it to the external liquidity of $3403.

The first selling opportunity in gold is the golden zone of fib 0.5-0.618 level, which is coming around $3335-$3344, and this level is also the breaker block of the big range gold has broken to the downside. Meanwhile, the second selling opportunity is the POC and the VAH of the ongoing bearish swing, which is coming around $3357-3369.

Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation

To conclude, gold can give both buys and sells this week. Lower time frames are suggesting sells, while higher time frames are still favoring a buy position in gold. 

Support Levels 

• $3303-3294 – a test of this support can be bought again in gold

Resistance Levels 

• $3335-$3344 – breaker block, 0.5-0.618 fib level of 1hr
• $3357-$3369. – POC and VAH of the bearish swing in 1hr