FED Interest Rate Cut in September? 80% Chance Says It’s Coming

Despite former President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for lower interest rates, the U.S. Federal Reserve held rates steady for the fifth straight meeting. The benchmark rate remains unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, a level set back in December 2024. But now, all eyes are on the upcoming September 17, 2025, FOMC meeting, and expectations are surging.

Possibilities of Interest Rate Cuts in the US

Just days ago, the probability of a rate cut in September was under 45%. But one key data point changed everything, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, and previous job numbers were revised significantly lower. This has pushed the market’s rate cut expectations to 80%, reflecting growing belief that the Fed can no longer afford to wait.

“Plenty can happen before the 17th September #FOMC meeting, but it’s looking more and more likely we will get a rate cut to the 4 to 4.25 range, i.e. 25 bps cut,” said crypto analyst Matthew Dixon on X.

The Fed’s internal division is also fueling speculation that two out of twelve FOMC members voted in favor of a rate cut in the last meeting, the first time in over 30 years that this has occurred.

Crypto Market Reacts to Economic Turmoil

The economic slowdown and geopolitical tension triggered by new U.S. tariffs have hit crypto hard. Bitcoin fell 3% to $113,231, while Ether and Solana dropped 6% and 5%, respectively. In the last 24 hours, BTC and ETH saw $228 million and $262 million in liquidations as traders were forced to sell at market prices to cover margin positions.

Investors are jittery. The Fed’s delay in rate cuts is now being seen as a misstep, adding to market panic.

What’s Next? CPI Data Could Be the Final Trigger

The final major data point before the Fed’s September meeting will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI). If inflation shows signs of cooling, analysts expect it to lock in the case for a cut.

“If CPI slows down, expect a good rally and a confirmed rate cut in September,” one economist noted.

How a Rate Cut Could Revive Crypto Markets?

A rate cut could bring much-needed relief to the crypto space. Lower interest rates reduce the appeal of fixed-income assets, pushing more investors toward riskier, high-yield assets like crypto.

It also encourages borrowing and injects liquidity into the market, conditions where crypto markets often thrive. A sustained dovish stance by the Fed may even boost adoption and regulatory clarity, paving the way for long-term stability in the digital asset space.