Does the US Hold Its Famous Gold Reserves? Polymarket Bets 21% That Fort Knox Gold Is a Mirage

Speculation over Fort Knox’s gold reserves grows as decades without full audits fuel doubts about the vault’s contents. On Polymarket, bettors now price a 21% likelihood the gold doesn’t exist, mirroring lingering public distrust despite official claims of security.

Is America’s Iconic Gold Secure? 21% of Polymarket Bettors Say No

Decades of conjecture have swirled around Fort Knox’s bullion, with hypotheses alleging its gold has been covertly relocated, liquidated, or supplanted by counterfeit ingots. Such narratives have gained traction from the depository’s enduring mystique—shrouded in classified protocols and shielded from external verification—while modern influencers, including Elon Musk and U.S. President Donald Trump, has reinvigorated fascination by advocating for transparency.

On the prediction platform Polymarket, users are betting on the mystery: One contract currently assigns a 21% likelihood that the gold doesn’t exist, highlighting broader curiosity—and unease—about what lies within the U.S. Bullion Depository. While U.S. officials have long asserted the gold remains secure, the absence of fresh verification keeps theories alive. For instance, the last complete audit of Fort Knox’s gold reserves took place in 1953, and that exercise was reportedly a spot check of only about 6% of the gold.

While routine “vault seal checks” have been carried out since then, they do not constitute comprehensive audits. A limited inspection in 1974 granted minimal access to journalists and Congress members but did not include a thorough inventory or purity verification. Fort Knox remains among the world’s most secure facilities, with access being extremely restricted.

In 2017, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin, and several members of Congress stepped into Fort Knox’s storied chambers. The visit amounted to a superficial inspection, not an audit, as officials refrained from employing rigorous methods to assess the gold’s purity through empirical verification. One could say it was merely a photo opportunity.

Since 1974, only a handful of senior officials have been permitted entry, and no public tours or examinations have been arranged. This veil of secrecy has prompted doubts regarding the continued presence of all the reported gold.

President Donald Trump has declared his intention to verify the gold reserves at Fort Knox, asserting that he plans to ensure the gold is accurately accounted for. Trump reiterated his commitment to probing the issue, saying on several occasions, “We’re going to go into Fort Knox to make sure the gold is there.” In light of Trump’s history of fulfilling high-profile promises, it appears likely that this inspection will move forward, particularly with Musk’s participation attracting considerable public interest.