Bitcoin traded ticked down slightly after the U.S. central bank left the Federal funds rate intact as analysts had widely expected amid uncertain inflation readings and the Fed’s cautious rhetoric in recent months.
BTC was recently trading at $117,777, off 0.1% over the past hour, according to crypto markets data provider CoinGecko. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is down about 4% since hitting a record high near $123,000 two weeks ago.
Ethereum, the second largest digital asset by market value, was changing hands at 3,809, a 0.4% increase since Tuesday, same time. ETH has been outperforming BTC and other major cryptos over the past three months.
The interest rate remained in a range between 4.25% and 4.50%.
Most major cryptos have been in a holding pattern as investors weighed the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s global trade war, unsettling inflationary signs and wider macroeconomic uncertainties. The June Consumer Price Index, released earlier this month ticked up 0.3% from the previous month to 2.7% annually. Those numbers were the highest since the February report and far above the Federal Reserve’s longstanding 2% goal.
The report and assorted other price and employment data suggested that inflation remained naggingly obstinate and that Trump’s tariff’s were starting to have an affect. Earlier this year, markets had been optimistic about the prospect of multiple rate cuts this year, which would buoy crypto prices by freeing capital for investment.
But Fed Chair Jerome Powell has remained unbending about basing policy decisions on data. The CME FedWatch tool, a widely watched measure of rate sentiment, calculated a nearly 97% probability that the central bank would keep rates unchanged and a better than 50% chance of a cut in only one of its subsequent three meetings in 2025.
Powell’s stance has rankled Trump who has hammered Powell relentlessly, insulting his intelligence and musing about firing him. Last week, he became just the fourth President to visit the Federal Reserve in what seemed the latest attempt in his pressure campaign. “Well, I’d love him to lower interest rates,” he said, responding to a reporter’s question at one point.
In a text to Decrypt, Joe DiPasquale, the CEO of crypto asset manager BitBull Capital, said that the market had already largely priced in a hold from the Fed this month,” and that investors would be looking more at Powell’s comments in his post announcement press conference, and any changes in the bank’s expectations.
“The real focus will be on Powell’s tone and any shifts in the dot plot,” DiPasquale said. “If he signals confidence that inflation is easing, risk assets–including crypto– could rally. But if the messaging is more hawkish or implies fewer cuts ahead, we could see a pullback. Either way, crypto’s reaction will likely track broader macro sentiment in the immediate aftermath.”
He added: “Inflation trends, ongoing trade tensions like tariffs, and geopolitical risks in Ukraine and Gaza are all contributing to a cautious backdrop, but they’re more of a secondary influence unless something escalates.”
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