Here’s Why Ethereum Failed to Break $4,000 Before and Why This Time Is Different

A top market analyst has identified why Ethereum has struggled to break the deadlock at $4,000 and why it could do so this time.

Ethereum showed sheer strength following Wednesday’s fallout from the FOMC meeting after the Federal Reserve failed to cut interest rates. With Bitcoin tumbling in a few minutes to $115,000, Ethereum receded slightly to $3,680 but recovered quickly to close the day positive.

Meanwhile, the momentum has continued today as Ether is up 1.60% already to reclaim $3,870. Ethereum is now a few dollars away from its July high of $3,941, with its bullish price action boosting the broader altcoin market.

Notably, Ethereum fell to as low as $2,816 on May 1, 2024, after the rejection but tried again. ETH rallied from the low to $3,972 on May 27, 2024, but still couldn’t make headway with the supply zone. Further, another round of price correction followed, with Ethereum falling to $2,131 on August 5, 2024.

The third attempt came with the December 16, 2024, high of $4,106. Notably, this was the farthest it has gone in three years, but again, it fell to the strong supply wall around the zone.

Why Ethereum Has Struggled with the Resistance

Interestingly, Cowen explained why Ethereum has struggled with the $4,000 resistance in his analysis. In simple terms, he noted it was because Ether “forgot to go home.”

This means that Ethereum failed to retest a crucial support level, which Cowen highlighted in the chart. While he did not provide further context, the trendline aligns with the 400-week moving average.

Nonetheless, Ethereum has gone home with its retracement to $1,385 on April 7 from the peak of the last retest in December 2024. After reaching the MA, Ethereum rebounded quickly and has surged 178% from the April low to its current market price of $3,868.

Now, the analyst expects Ethereum to break above the resistance at $4,000 this time to new highs. He further noted that ETH would rally to new all-time highs before any other notable correction. At the current market standing, Ether is nearly 21% away from its all-time high of $4,891 in November 2021.

Remarkably, Cowen joins a list of analysts bullish on Ethereum’s near and long-term price development. Notably, there have been mild and ambitious price predictions for Ethereum recently, with the most eye-catching being Bitmine’s staggering $60,000 projection.