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Gold gave a generous buying move last week as it retested the $3438 HTF resistance, after which sellers regained strength, and we witnessed a strong bearish move.
The weekly closing in gold was below the major level of $3357, so we can expect a retest of this level and more bearish pressure.
Summary
- Gold remains range-bound ahead of FOMC: After retesting the $3438 resistance, gold had a bearish reversal. A retest and additional downward pressure are probable given the weekly closing below $3357, but bias is neutral ahead of significant FOMC events.
- Mixed U.S. data affecting Gold: This week’s economic figures sent conflicting messages: while increased unemployment and a disappointing NFP report helped gold prices, positive GDP and jobs data bolstered the USD.
- Important technical levels for trading: $3360–3373 (1h OB and FVG) is the resistance, while $3308–3283 (4h OB, FVG, swing low) is the support. $3440 might be the aim of a breach above resistance.
- Strategy perspective: If price holds above important support zones, longer timeframes continue to support a bullish perspective, while shorter timeframes indicate selling opportunities.
Since this is FOMC week, the bias in gold is neutral, as financial markets are waiting for the major news from the Fed. With that in mind, let’s discuss the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in this XAUUSD weekly forecast from July 28th to May 4th, 2025.
Key economic events of this week
Some significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week that are expected to impact XAUUSD.
Tuesday, July 29 – JOLTS Job Openings
A declining labor market is indicated by the fact that job opportunities fell to 7.49 million from a projected 7.77 million. As the USD declines and the probability of a dovish Fed posture increases, this might help gold.
Wednesday, July 30 – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change & Advance GDP q/q
Strong private hiring was reported by ADP jobs statistics (82K vs. -33K predicted), which could put pressure on gold and enhance the USD.
GDP unexpectedly increased by 2.4% compared to -0.5%, showing strong economic growth, which is encouraging for gold since it lessens the pressure for rate cuts.
Wednesday, July 30 – Federal Funds Rate & FOMC Statement
As anticipated, the Fed kept interest rates at 4.50%. A stronger dollar outlook might put pressure on gold if the announcement indicates a sustained high-rate environment.
Thursday, July 31 – FOMC Press Conference, Core PCE, Employment Cost Index, Unemployment Claims
Powell’s hawkish tone at the news conference could put downward pressure on gold.
Core PCE increased by 0.3% compared to 0.2%, which exacerbated inflation worries and put pressure on gold.
Concerns about wage inflation were reduced by a little lower Employment Cost Index (0.8% vs. 0.9%), which was somewhat positive for gold.
Higher unemployment claims (222K vs. 217K) suggest a minor softening of the job market, which could help gold prices.
Friday, August 1 – Average Hourly Earnings, NFP, Unemployment Rate, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wages exceeded forecasts by 0.3% compared to 0.2%, which is negative for gold and inflation.
The labor market softening—bullish for gold—is shown by the NFP’s big miss (108K vs. 147K).
The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2%, which bolstered concerns about a downturn and helped gold.
Concerns about a recession could drive gold prices higher if the ISM Manufacturing PMI reports dismal results.
Gold HTF Overview
On the monthly timeframe chart, we can see that gold has tested the $3438 level for the third time but is unable to break it. However, the next major liquidity on gold is still at its all-time high of $3500. If this monthly candle also closes green in 3 days, then we can see a new ATH on gold, after which a bearish move may be expected.
Gold Forecast for July 28th to May 4th, 2025
Similar to the previous XAUUSD weekly forecast, we have strong levels on gold at the 4h OB, FVG, and the swing low as well. A strong buying move can be expected from these levels of $3308-3283.
The closest selling area on gold is the 1hr OB and FVG at $3360-3373. It should also be noted that if this selling area fails to hold and price flips above it then it can easily go to retest $3440 next.
Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation
To conclude, gold can give both buys and sells this week. Lower time frames are suggesting sells, while higher time frames are still favoring a buy position in gold.
Resistance Levels
- $3360-3373 – 1h OB and FVG
Support Levels
- $3308-3383 – 4h swing low, OB and FVG
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