Dow Jones, major indices gain as Trump holds off Iran strikes

U.S. stocks traded higher on Friday even as investors remained cautious, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq notching gains after President Donald Trump announced a two-week window for Iran to negotiate.

As markets resumed on Friday following the Juneteenth break on Thursday, June 19, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened just 150 points higher.

Meanwhile, the benchmark S&P 500 hovered near the flatline, up 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.6%. President Trump’s message and fresh comments on a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut seemed to catalyze the upward move.

Middle East conflict: Trump offers deadline

The overriding sentiment revolved around geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Israel and Iran continuing strikes against each other. Stocks had plummeted on Wednesday after Trump indicated the United States was set to enter the conflict.

However, the White House released a statement on Trump’s latest move that held off any attacks on Iran to allow for negotiations. His diplomatic effort includes a two-week deadline for Tehran, while reports suggest Israel’s strike on Iran may intensify over the weekend.

“If Trump does end up deciding to attack Iran he will most likely wait until after 4PM ET on Friday because he wants the shock of bombing to be diminished as much as possible by market open on Monday,” said Jesse Cohen, a global markets analyst.

Stocks and cryptocurrencies have swung amid the seesawing situation. Bitcoin (BTC) rose from lows of $104k to above $106k. Despite geopolitical risks, analysts at QCP say volatility is not “gone”.

“Markets are in limbo. Participants are digesting geopolitical headlines and recalibrating risk amid rising tensions. Volatility may just be taking a breather, not gone,” QCP posted on X.

Meanwhile, oil prices have also reacted to the Middle East conflict, rising and falling amid the developments. Traders remain cautious that disruption in supply, if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, could send oil prices skyrocketing.

Will Fed cut rates in July?

Away from the geopolitical tensions, fresh focus is on the Federal Reserve after Chair Jerome Powell left interest rates unchanged following the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday.

Trump has insisted the Fed has to cut rates, and while investors see a high chance of rate cuts in September, latest reports suggest the central bank could act sooner.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, in an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday, noted that the Fed could consider cutting interest rates as early as July.

“I think we’re in the position that we could do this as early as July. That would be my view, whether the committee would go along with it or not,” Waller said.