Chainlink price has crashed this year, continuing a trend that started in December when it peaked at a multi-year high of $30.78.
Chainlink (LINK) dived to $17.4 on Saturday, down by 43% from its highest level in December. Its crash mirrors the happenings among altcoins as most of them have retreated in the past few months.
Still, there are three key reasons why the LINK price may bounce back later this year.
First, there are signs that many Chainlink holders are not selling their coins. One piece of evidence is that balances on exchanges have continued falling this year. CoinGlass data shows that these balances have dropped to 138.8 million LINK coins, the lowest level since September last year. They plunged from 160 million in December.
Falling centralized exchange balances is a sign that investors are optimistic about the coin, with most of them holding them steady in their self-custody wallets. In most periods, CEX balances jump when investors are moving them from their wallets to sell them.
The confidence among Chainlink holders is likely because many of them expect that the Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a spot LINK ETF later this year. Such a fund would lead to more inflows and boost its price.
Chainlink price may also rebound because of its positioning in the crypto industry, where it is the biggest oracle network. It has a total value secured or TVS figure of $35 billion, making it much higher than other oracles like Chronicle, Pyth, and RedStone.
Chainlink is also a big player in the Real World Asset tokenization industry through its cross-chain interoperability protocol. CCIP is a key component in the industry that provides solutions to build, scale, connect, and send assets across various blockchains.
Chainlink price analysis
Third, Chainlink price may bounce back because of its strong technicals. The weekly chart shows that LINK has remained slightly above the 100-week Exponential Moving Averages even after crashing by 43% from its highest point in November.
LINK has also formed a giant megaphone chart pattern, which is characterized by two diverging trendlines. In most periods, this pattern leads to a strong bullish breakout.
In LINK’s case, the initial target of a rebound will be the November high of $30 followed by the 61.8% retracement point of $35. A drop below the lower side of the megaphone will invalidate the bullish LINK outlook.
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