This Critical Binance Metric Suggests Incoming Surprises for Bitcoin: What You Need to Know

Binance’s net taker volume surged past $100 million just ahead of the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Such a trend points to aggressive buying as traders position for a key macroeconomic catalyst.

Binance Sees Aggressive Buy Orders

In its latest analysis, CryptoQuant revealed thaft this spike reflects large market buy orders on Binance, indicating strong bullish sentiment or speculative bets on continued market momentum.

The US labor market report, released shortly after, showed Nonfarm Payrolls increasing by 147,000 in June. This figure exceeded analysts’ expectations of 110,000-118,000. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in May and was the lowest level since February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The stronger-than-expected employment data reduces the chances of near-term rate cuts, ultimately backing the Fed’s plan to maintain higher rates to control inflation. Market-implied probabilities now reveal a 95% chance the Fed will hold rates steady at its July meeting, as it rose from 75% before the jobs report was released.

A resilient jobs market has strengthened the US dollar, as expectations of delayed or reduced interest rate cuts make the currency more attractive relative to others.

Historically, strong NFP data and hawkish Fed expectations have weighed on risk assets, including Bitcoin, as a firmer dollar environment tends to reduce the relative appeal of alternative assets.

The combination of Binance’s aggressive buy-side activity and the strong jobs report could pave the way for potential volatility in crypto markets as traders assess the Fed’s policy outlook and the broader macro environment.

After US jobs data beat forecasts, Bitcoin briefly climbed above $110K before retreating to $108.8K.

July Seasonality Fuel Optimism

As per crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades’ observation, holding above $108K is critical for the leading crypto asset to avoid a downward spiral. He considers a close near the $110K region a healthy sign.

Meanwhile, Matrixport noted that July has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, as 7 out of the last 10 Julys have closed positively and have an average return of over 9.1%. Supported by the improving Fed outlook and post-July 4 optimism, the next few weeks could offer a final push higher before another round of consolidation. The Greed & Fear Index is also bottoming out, a signal that often precedes upward momentum in Bitcoin’s price.

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