Stellar (XLM) at Risk of a Major Crash After Losing Key 10-Day Support

TL;DR

• XLM breaks its 10-day SMA after a strong rally, opening the door for short-term weakness.
• Analysts outlined $0.8 and $8.00 targets if the price regains momentum and breaks resistance zones.
• The BBP indicator turns negative, signaling that momentum has shifted from buyers to sellers this week.

XLM Breaks Short-Term Support

Stellar (XLM) has moved below its 10-day simple moving average (SMA), a level that recently acted as support during its July rally. The shift follows a strong monthly run that took the price from below $0.30 to just over $0.50.

As of press time, XLM trades at $0.43 after falling nearly 6% on the day. The 7-day performance shows a drop of about 8%. The candle that broke the SMA closed with higher selling volume than the previous sessions. This drop below the moving average has drawn attention from traders watching short-term momentum.

Chart analyst Ali Martinez posted: 

Stellar $XLM just lost the 10-day SMA as support: bullish above, bearish below! pic.twitter.com/f3wkMHZhqd

— Ali (@ali_charts) July 29, 2025

So far, the price has not recovered to the level.

Comparing Past and Present Patterns

Some analysts are pointing to earlier market cycles for reference. Javon Marks noted that the current chart mirrors XLM’s 2015–2018 cycle. That earlier period featured a long downtrend, a wedge pattern, and a breakout, followed by a steep climb.

Marks wrote: 

“Prices can be preparing here for another 80% upside to and above the $0.79783 level.” 

If the price breaks above that area, the analyst sees potential for a move toward $8.00, returning to the levels seen in 2018. That would mark a 10x gain from where XLM trades now.

Based on $XLM (Stellar)’s performance in the 2015-2018 bull cycle and the similarities in this one, prices can be preparing here for another >80% upside to and above the $0.79783 level!

Above that level and XLM could push another +900% to a more than $8.00 price point!

That’s a… pic.twitter.com/FC0igkrhi0

— JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) July 29, 2025

At the same time, trader Peter Brandt warned that key levels must still be met. “XLM must hold above its April low near $0.22 and must close decisively above $1,” he wrote, or the token will “remain range bound.”

Balance of Power Flips Negative

The Bull-Bear Power (BBP) indicator reading is now in negative territory. The current value is -0.0182. This comes after a large bullish move earlier in July, where green bars on the indicator reflected strong buyer activity.

Meanwhile, that trend has shifted. Red bars are now forming, suggesting that sellers are starting to take control. The transition from green to red also shows that momentum has cooled. If BBP stays below the zero line, it may point to continued pressure.

What to Watch Next

XLM is trading just under its short-term support. The $0.42–$0.45 zone could act as a decision point. If buyers manage to push the asset above $0.45 with substantial volume, a return toward $0.50 is possible.

If not, traders may see further selling. With key levels from past cycles still far away, Stellar needs to stabilize above short-term lines before any larger move can begin.