Bitcoin (BTC) has once again surged past $105,000, propelled by the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East; however, an even more noteworthy story lies beneath the surface: the market has absorbed a colossal wave of profit taking without collapsing.
About 720,000 BTC, sold mainly by recent buyers since mid-April, has been met with an equally strong demand, preventing a more resounding crash despite a $66 billion surge in the Realized Cap of coins held for less than one month.
Profit-Taking Meets Fresh Demand
According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., the $66 billion increase in Realized Cap for the 0-1 month cohort since April 13 is definitive proof of large-scale profit realization by short-term holders.
While such aggressive selling pressure would typically trigger significant downside, Adler highlighted a critical counterforce: new buyers entering the market have been steadily absorbing this massive supply.
In his opinion, this offsetting has kept Bitcoin trading within a relatively narrow range in the last few weeks.
However, his UTXO Block Profit/Loss Count Ratio Model indicates the profit-taking frenzy may have subsided, dropping from an extreme 34,000 points near BTC’s all-time high in May to just 216 points today.
“Profitable sales have almost disappeared,” noted Adler, while the proportion of loss-realizing transactions has increased. The likeliest explanation is that the wave of eager sellers has largely passed, replaced by buyers accumulating at lower levels, reducing the immediate risk of a sharp crash.
Meanwhile, the global markets are experiencing a sense of relief thanks to an unexpected ceasefire between Israel and Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed a “Complete and Total” cessation of hostilities, quelling fears of a deeper conflict.
Following that, investors like Daan Crypto Trades and Michaël van de Poppe echoed cautious optimism on X, pointing out that reduced geopolitical risk could ease headline-driven volatility and help Bitcoin regain upward momentum.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Indeed, BTC has staged a noticeable recovery since dipping below the symbolic $100,000 mark after the U.S. unleashed airstrikes against several Iranian nuclear installations last week. As of this writing, the king cryptocurrency had climbed 3.8% in the last 24 hours to hover around $105,400 after going as high as $105,927 during the Asian trading session.
On a weekly scale, it remains slightly underwater, down about 1.1%, which is a modest underperformance compared to the broader crypto market’s 0.4% gain over the same period.
The asset also experienced a slight 1.7% dip over the last 30 days, reflecting recent liquidation cascades and historical Q3 headwinds. As analyst Benjamin Cowen previously highlighted, Bitcoin often struggles through the summer months. Past bull cycles saw steep drops of 25–35% between June and July before roaring back in late Q4.
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