Is Bitcoin Done Falling? Market Metrics Say the Worst May Be Over

Bitcoin (BTC) has been consolidating over the past few days following a significant correction triggered by geopolitical tensions last week. As the consolidation continues, analysts at the crypto exchange Bitfinex have found reasons to believe that the digital asset may have hit its bottom for this correction.

According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, market behavior, historical data, and certain metrics, such as Bitcoin Net Taker Volume, suggest that the correction may not extend further than it already has.

BTC Reacts to Geopolitical Tensions

Last week, BTC started with a strong rebound and recovery from earlier lows. The asset reclaimed key support levels around its previous all-time high (ATH) of $109,900, marking a 4.7% gain from the weekly open. This was supported by a temporary pause in profit-taking activity and improving market sentiment.

However, things took a turn for the worse after tensions in the Middle East increased and Israel attacked Iran. BTC experienced a 7.33% peak-to-trough decline, losing much of its early-week gains amid heightened uncertainty in the markets. The cryptocurrency ended the week at 0.09% despite earlier gains.

“The swift reversal highlights the marketʼs fragility in the face of exogenous shocks, and underscores how quickly sentiment can shift even during strong trend conditions. Heading into this week, all eyes are on the macro newsflow and whether BTC can maintain support above the $103-105K region,” Bitfinex stated.

Is The Bottom In?

While global markets continue to react to the effects of ongoing geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin is experiencing a spike in selling activity. This is evident in the Net Taker Volume, a metric that measures the balance between market buys and sells. The indicator has dropped to -$197 million, its most negative level since June 6, which suggests that traders are offloading BTC at market prices rather than waiting with passive bids.

Such low readings in Net Taker Volume, especially below -$160 million, have coincided with local BTC bottoms. This is because panic selling exhausts weaker market participants, allowing larger players to accumulate the asset.

One more reason for believing that BTC has hit its bottom for this decline is that the magnitude of this plunge closely aligns with the cycle median drawdown of roughly 7%, which is neither extreme nor anomalous. Analysts say this reflects a healthy consolidation phase during an ongoing uptrend rather than the onset of a deeper structural correction and that BTC is likely to recover soon.