Ethereum Price Analysis: Is ETH Gearing Up for a Surge to $4K?

Ethereum continues to show strong momentum as the price hovers just under a key level, supported by sustained bullish structure and growing market interest. With spot prices holding above major moving averages and an aggressive rally from June lows, all eyes are on whether ETH can break above the $4,107 level.

Technical Analysis

By ShayanMarkets

The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, Ethereum is respecting its bullish structure, having flipped the $3,300 zone from resistance into support. The 100-day and 200-day have also created a bullish crossover, providing additional confirmation of the trend.

Moreover, the RSI, which recently entered overbought territory, has slightly cooled down but remains elevated, suggesting that momentum might be overheated. Yet, the clean sweep and reclaim of prior highs around $3,300 reflect strength and commitment from buyers, and as long as this level holds, the bulls are in control.

This structure is a classic sign of trend continuation, especially when supported by strong volume and momentum indicators. If the price begins to expand again from this consolidation range, the next upside target would likely be the $4,400 region, where Ethereum topped during previous cycles.

Conversely, a break below $3,300 would raise concerns of a deeper retracement, but for now, that scenario seems less likely unless broader market weakness emerges.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4H chart further supports the bullish case with a clearly defined ascending trendline holding the price. The asset continues to respect the trendline, and each dip has been met with strong buying interest, signaling that bulls are still active and defending the uptrend.

However, some caution is warranted in the short term, mainly due to the overbought conditions on the daily chart. If ETH fails to hold above the $3,700 zone or loses the ascending trendline, a short-term correction toward $3,500 would be a healthy reset. This level also aligns with the daily support block, making it a logical area for buyers to step in again if tested.

On-Chain Analysis

Ethereum Open Interest

On the sentiment side, Ethereum’s open interest across all exchanges has surged to over $27 billion, marking its highest point in years. This indicates a massive influx of leveraged positions and reflects growing speculative appetite in the market. Historically, rising open interest in tandem with rising price signals confidence and trend strength, but it also increases the risk of a long squeeze if the market turns.

What’s notable, however, is that despite the elevated OI, funding rates remain at relatively moderate levels. This suggests that the majority of traders are not excessively over-leveraged, and we are not yet seeing the kind of euphoria typically associated with major tops.

It gives Ethereum more room to push higher without the immediate threat of a sharp deleveraging event. For now, positioning remains optimistic but not overheated, keeping the path open for a potential breakout above $4,100.

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