Buy Bitcoin Now? Not Yet—Analyst Says Time Holds The Key

In a post on June 17, prominent crypto strategist Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) outlined his high-conviction roadmap for Bitcoin’s next major breakout, emphasizing that timing—not just price—is the most critical factor for those still on the sidelines.

Despite projecting a continuation of the broader uptrend that began at $18,000 in 2023, Astronomer warned that jumping in prematurely could blunt the risk-reward ratio of the next leg. “Planning to buy now into BTC is expected to net you a move of over 70% in a short period of time,” he wrote. “But the closer we get to those 10 weeks, confirmed with price action, the closer BTC is to breaking out.”

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His primary thesis: Bitcoin’s breakout will not occur before June 30, and any significant move is statistically more likely after that date. This aligns with what he calls one of the “most ancient crypto mechanics”—Bitcoin moves first, and altcoins follow.

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Astronomer’s roadmap presents a tiered accumulation strategy rooted in probabilistic support zones. “Upon statistical analysis, the expected close before going up only is around $103k,” he wrote. “Probably a good level to start getting involved. […] The expected level to be reached based on all prior signals (lowest wick) is $96k. Probably a good level to buy heavy if given. […] And finally, the expected lowest close is $90k. Probably a good level to allocate (almost) all your dry powder.”

But beyond the price levels, Astronomer places stronger emphasis on timing: “If the price doesn’t go as deep into the $90’s—which I don’t think is very likely—I expect June to close between $95-110k and not go much lower. Then I’d buy more and more the closer we get to those 10 weeks regardless of the price. Time is more important than price.”

He also pointed to structural market dynamics supporting his thesis, including a bullish spot-to-perpetual rotation: “The order books start to rotate towards green into spot, red into perps (aggressive shorts, aggressive spot buys), simply visible with the increasing spot premiums.” Adding to the signal strength is a recent weekly hash ribbon print—“one that never failed,” he noted.

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Astronomer further offered guidance for navigating altcoins, advising traders to wait for the breakout rather than attempting to catch falling knives. “Buying alts when BTC breaks out […] is smarter than trying to knife catch them. To eliminate the drawdown and reap the upside rewards.”

Summarizing his plan, he said, “If I was sidelined, I’d look to buy below $103k and as much as possible as close to $90k as possible. And the closer we get to those 10 weeks, confirmed with price action, the more confident I become.”

Astronomer’s final message underscores that his bullish stance hasn’t changed since the flip at $18K: “No top being in yet, until we reach at least 170k+. That is the plan.”

And for those still unsure? He offers a blunt reminder: “This post is indeed on the backbone of our overall bull market masterplan. Good information if you want to make money—even if you’re sidelined, holding, or want to top up your bags.”

At press time, BTC traded at $105,094.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com