All Eyes On Vegas And June

Bitcoin hovers between $107,000 and $111,000, a deceptively narrow range that masks an options market bristling with tension. In a note to clients released today, Singapore-based QCP Capital argues that the lull is anything but benign. “Bitcoin’s reaction to last Friday’s macro developments was relatively restrained, even as equities rallied sharply,” the desk writes, pointing to “steady” institutional inflows into spot-BTC ETFs as the anchor keeping spot prices in check.

Bitcoin Calm Before The Storm?

The stability, however, has not bled into derivatives: “Front-end implied volatility held firm, with BTC consolidating in a tight range,” QCP observes, adding that traders are actively paying up for one- and two-week downside protection ahead of the Bitcoin Conference that opens in Las Vegas later today.

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QCP frames the three-day gathering—whose speaker roster includes US Vice President JD Vance, Strategy chairman Michael Saylor, and Donald Trump’s sons Eric and Donald Jr.—as the key near-term volatility catalyst. “The sustained elevation in near-term vols suggests that traders are positioning around headline risk,” the firm writes.

Memories of last year’s Nashville conference linger: a keynote by US President Trump sent one-day implied volatility above 90 before collapsing, with spot BTC tumbling nearly 30 percent in forty-eight hours. “That episode continues to shape market memory,” QCP warns, even as it assigns a low probability to a repeat.

The positioning data argue for caution all the same. Perpetual futures open interest has retreated in the past twenty-four hours, and funding rates have slid back toward neutral levels—signs, QCP says, of “a defensive tilt.” Retail voices that typically embrace leverage are dialing back risk as well. Popular trader James Wynn has publicly trimmed longs, echoing an uptick in demand for short-dated puts that QCP describes as “persistent.”

ETF flows remain the counterweight to that defensiveness. US spot-Bitcoin products absorbed 7,869 BTC last Friday, the largest single-day haul since late April, according to Glassnode data. For the week ending 23 May, net inflows reached $2.75 billion, the second-strongest weekly print of the year. Those allocations, QCP argues, “offer underlying support,” but are not large enough to overwhelm options-driven short-term swings should headlines jolt sentiment.

Rumors—since denied—that Trump Media is exploring a $3 billion crypto raise exemplify the hair-trigger backdrop. “Headline sensitivity is elevated,” QCP writes. In its base case, Bitcoin holds its current band until the Las Vegas speeches conclude, after which “front-end vols are expected to compress as risk premia fade.”

Higher Until Early June?

Not everyone agrees that the compression will come quickly. The pseudonymous macro-cycle analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero), whose FOMC-timing model correctly flagged Bitcoin’s March low and February high, remains emphatically long. “This is not a ‘top in June’ call,” he posts on X. “This is a call that we go higher from here, and I remain bullish. Big difference.”

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He argues that Bitcoin historically grinds upward until roughly ten calendar days before an FOMC meeting; the next one lands on 18 June. “Price likely keeps going higher until the 8th–18th of June,” he writes, adding that cyclical weekly timing “lines up” and that he is “looking for longs upon short-time-frame pullbacks.”

Astronomer’s conviction rests on a broader twenty-four-week cycle that he dates from the October 2024 breakout. “We are only week six,” he notes, implying that the upside phase is barely half-way through. He concedes that “alts always lag behind BTC,” but argues that pressing the momentum trade now is critical: “Going with momentum as long as possible gets you in the right mindset before trying to short too early.”

For the moment, spot prices stay eerily placid even as the options market prices a storm. Whether that storm strikes upward or downward may depend on a sound bite delivered from a Las Vegas stage or on a policy nuance telegraphed from the Marriner Eccles Building three weeks later. Until then, Bitcoin’s calm is precisely what makes veteran traders nervous—and why hedging desks are doing brisk business selling fear.

At press time, BTC traded at $110,661.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com