Will It Break $108K or Crash Again?

Bitcoin has climbed back above $105,000 at press time, but a deeper look at on-chain data suggests the recovery is fragile and lacks strong conviction from buyers.

Bitcoin had gained around 1% after the sharp drop on June 13th, when it fell by 4%, slipping below $104,000 as rising tensions in the Middle East caused panic across the crypto market and wiped out billions of dollars in value. While this small price recovery is a relief for investors, experts warn that the market still looks shaky.

A CryptoQuant analyst has observed that the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index, a tool that tracks market mood, has dropped to around 46%. This is below the neutral 50% mark, meaning traders are leaning slightly bearish.

Bitcoin Stuck in a Range?

The index had peaked above 80% in early June when the market was much more positive. But even though Bitcoin’s price bounced from $103K to $105K, trading activity hasn’t picked up enough to fully support the move.

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Bitcoin is now stuck in a tight range between $103K and $105K, with no new buyers stepping in. For Bitcoin to start a proper upward rally, the analyst said the sentiment index would need to rise above 60–65%.

On-Chain Volume Confirms Lack of Strong Buying Interest

The analyst also flagged a concern on the charts. After briefly falling below $103.1K, Bitcoin quickly bounced back to $105K. However, the OBV (On-Balance Volume) indicator, which shows whether money is flowing in or out of Bitcoin, is still stuck in negative territory around –100K. This shows weak buying interest and raises the risk of another price dip if Bitcoin fails to stay above $105K.

For a real breakout, the analyst explained, OBV needs to rise above –80K while the price also closes above $105K. Until that happens, sellers are still in control of the market.

Bitcoin Price Analysis (Short-Term)

Bitcoin is currently trading around $105,000 after a small bounce, but the market still looks uncertain. Analysts say the key resistance to watch is between $107,500 and $108,800. If Bitcoin manages to break above this level with strong buying volume, it could push higher toward the $112,000–$113,000 range.

Source: TradingView

Related: Bitcoin’s Struggle as a Safe-Haven: Can It Outperform Gold During Geopolitical Crises?

On the downside, the important support level is at $104,700. If Bitcoin falls below this, it could signal the start of a deeper correction.