Bitcoin holds strong above $85,000, consolidating in a key technical zone after wading through the first-quarter volatility driven by Trump administration tariffs.
Now, with market volatility falling and the US dollar weakening, entering Q2, Coin Edition analysis finds conditions aligning for a potential Bitcoin breakout this quarter
How Did Trump Tariffs Impact Bitcoin in Q1 2025?
Bitcoin’s price trajectory in Q1 2025 has heavily relied on macroeconomic forces as much as technical structure. After reaching an all-time high of $109K during Trump’s re-election in November, BTC’s winning streak ended in March (BTC lost over $20K of its value), due to aggressive U.S. tariff announcements. On-chain data confirms declining open interest and mass liquidations.
As panic spread across the global financial market, Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause, excluding China, on April 5. This provided a brief respite, and BTC made a notable rebound from the $70K–$80K liquidity pocket.
Related: Bitcoin Emerges as ‘Safe’ Asset Thanks to Trump Tariffs and Recession Fears
Bitcoin Eyes Q2 Breakout After $90K Rally and FVG Consolidation
On the price front, BTC is reclaiming a descending trendline, and is now consolidating inside a former Fair Value Gap (FVG) created post-election. Historical price action (during Nov 2024) shows this zone has previously acted as a launchpad for momentum surges.
In the 1-day chart, the RSI at 53 reflects a recovery from oversold levels, aligning with favourable global liquidity trends. All these are classic signs of a bottoming behavior, suggesting BTC is primed for a Q2 breakout.
Related: ‘Buy Stocks’ Says Trump, ‘Bad Advice’ Says Schiff: Who’s Right on Tariffs?
Are Macro Factors Turning Bullish for Bitcoin in Q2?
Several improving macroeconomic factors add weight to the bullish case. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) recently slipped below 2023 levels, and with the Fed’s May FOMC meeting on the horizon, talk of possible quantitative easing (QE) is back in focus. A weaker dollar historically favors risk assets, with crypto among the top beneficiaries.
Market volatility (VIX index) also dropped significantly to the mid-30s after the tariff pause, bringing in a more favorable “risk-on” environment. Also, the upcoming May Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting brings potential Quantitative Easing (QE) back into market discussions, another supportive factor for crypto.
What’s the Bitcoin Price Outlook for Q2 2025?
Based on this confluence of technical strength and supportive macro trends, traders watch the $90K–$93K resistance zone.
A decisive breakout above this area would confirm renewed bullish momentum. If current supportive macro conditions persist, Bitcoin is well-positioned for a potential strong rally this quarter.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.
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