Bullish breakout? Double digit gains likely

SEI and KAIA tokens extended their rally Friday as Bitcoin held firm below $105,000, signaling trader resilience ahead of a potentially volatile derivatives expiration day.

With markets weathering geopolitical and macroeconomic shocks in recent weeks, the coming “quadruple witching” could test altcoin stability—but if Bitcoin (BTC) stays above key support at $104,000, SEI and KAIA may have room to run.

SEI and KAIA price analysis 

SEI traded at $0.1948 early on Friday, with modest gains. The token added 6% to its value in the past seven days, as seen on TradingView.

SEI’s closest support and resistance levels are S1 at $0.1582, the June 17 low and R1 at $0.2494, the upper boundary of an FVG on the daily price chart. 

Technical indicators RSI and MACD support a bullish thesis. RSI reads 50 and is sloping upwards. MACD shows underlying positive momentum in SEI price trend on the daily timeframe. 

SEI could see a daily candlestick close above R1 and test resistance at $0.2750, the May 11 peak for the token. 

Conversely, higher volatility could usher a correction in SEI, sending the token to collect liquidity at $0.1303 support, as seen in the SEI/USDT price chart. 

KAIA hovers above the $0.19 level on Friday. The token posted over 2% gains and extended its value on Friday. KAIA has observed nearly 9% increase in its value in the past seven days. The KAIA/USDT daily price chart shows strong potential for further increase in the token’s price. 

RSI signals the token is currently overvalued, however until it dips under the 70 level, it does not typically generate a sell signal. MACD flashes increasingly taller green histogram bars, meaning there is an underlying positive trend in KAIA price. 

The closest resistance is R1 at $0.2054, the upper boundary of the FVG on the daily price chart. Next hurdle on the path to re-test 2025 peak at $0.2665 is R2 at $0.2525. 

Conversely, KAIA could sweep liquidity at the February 3 low of $0.08. Another key support is the lower boundary of the FVG at $0.1077. 

Market volatility in response to quadruple witching

Crypto market capitalization is down 2.3% in the last 24 hours. The quadruple witching event has traders on edge, expecting higher volatility and price swings in Bitcoin and altcoin prices. Volatility may have subsided for now, with most altcoins ending the week in green, geopolitical tensions over the weekend could impact liquidity and trader sentiment. 

Traders have previously remained neutral, and crypto prices have shown resilience in the face of tariff uncertainty, wars, and missiles. However, it remains to be seen how the market will react to short-lived volatility this weekend. 

Traders remained neutral on Friday, sentiment reads 54 on a scale of 0 to 100, suggesting a neutral outlook towards the market. 

Trump-era optimism

The optimism that Trump ushered in with his election victory and Bitcoin’s new all-time high could keep altcoins afloat during times of uncertainty. Even as traders turn risk-averse, Bitcoin price defended the $100,000 milestone and failed to sweep under the level even in the face of escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. 

In short, macroeconomic headwinds have failed to shake the resolve of crypto traders, perhaps due to the passage of the GENIUS Act in the Senate, the resolution of the SEC v. Ripple lawsuit, and the SEC’s leniency toward the crypto sector.

Altcoin market capitalization is testing key support at $1.09 trillion. If prices remain relatively stable and traders defend the support, altcoins like SEI and KAIA could survive the short-lived market volatility without erasing prior gains.