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When looking at data throughout the market, it’s fairly easy to find some bright spots right now.
For example, BTC volatility offers a “sharp contrast” to that of equities, according to K33.
“Following its massive sell-off, the S&P 500 recorded its largest one-week volatility since April 2020, whereas BTC’s 7-day volatility of 3.1% sits moderately above its 1-year average 7-day volatility level of 2.5%,” analysts wrote.
“This orderly and relatively regular 7-day volatility of BTC amidst the broad market chaos is an unusual sight to behold, as steep movements in equities tend to be mirrored by even sharper BTC moves.”
Source: K33
This supports another piece of data you all know I’m fond of: CME trader sentiment. As of last week, traders were holding on to their defensive positions, but seemed relatively unfazed by what was happening in equity markets.
“CME yields are starting to show a mild uptrend over recent weeks, indicative of slightly improved market sentiment. However, current premiums remain soft at 6.3%, reflecting cautious positioning, while open interest remains flat at 11-month lows. VolatilityShares outflows largely offset inflows from active market participants, as the futures-based ETF now holds 43,930 BTC – its lowest level since July 2024,” the analysts wrote.
The real test will be looking at this same data in a week to ensure it’s holding up, given that volatility has taken us on some wild rides so far this week. My read right now is that cautious positioning without panic is a good sign. Though, after this week (and, yes, it’s only Wednesday), I’m not sure that’ll still be the case.
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