Bitcoin ‘up year’ is 2026, and the four-year cycle is dead: Bitwise

Bitcoin’s price could see significant upside in 2026, bucking the traditional four-year market cycle, according to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan.

The prediction comes as other analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin (BTC) will stray from its historical pattern or follow the traditional halving cycle and peak in the coming months.

Bitcoin may be in for a “good few years,” says Hougan

“I bet 2026 is an up year,” Hougan said in an X video on Friday. “I broadly think we’re in for a good few years,” Hougan added.

Hougan said the four-year halving cycle “is dead” for several reasons, including the Bitcoin halving becoming “half as important” every four years, and the interest rate cycle being positive for crypto. Since April, US President Donald Trump has been publicly pressuring Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, a potentially bullish catalyst for Bitcoin, as lower rates make traditional assets like bonds and term deposits less appealing to investors.

Hougan also said the chances of significant price pullbacks have decreased as the industry gains more clarity on regulations. “Blow-up risk is attenuated, due to improving regulation and the institutionalization of the space,” Hougan said.

He said that given the ongoing regulatory process and the early stage of institutional adoption, Bitcoin likely has more upside in this cycle than historical trends suggests:

“The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic “four-year cycle” forces, to the extent those exist, and that 2026 will be a good year.”

Hougan said the most significant “cyclical-style risk” for Bitcoin is the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies. “Bears watching and is significant,” Hougan said.

Asset manager VanEck recently echoed the same concern, warning that firms accumulating Bitcoin by issuing new stock or taking on debt are particularly vulnerable.

VanEck said these companies might be overextended if Bitcoin’s price falls sharply.

Bitcoin more likely to see a “sustained steady boom”

However, Hougan forecasted that Bitcoin’s price rally will be steady rather than aggressive in the short term. “I think it’s more “sustained steady boom” than super-cycle,” he said.

“I could be wrong, and I’m certain there will be significant volatility,” he added.

It comes only days after CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said the Bitcoin four-year cycle theory “is dead.”

“My predictions were based on it — buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds,” Ju said.

“Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we thought,” Ju added.

However, not everyone says the pattern has changed. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently warned that Bitcoin may only have a few months of price expansion left in the cycle, especially if it follows the same historical pattern from 2020.

Rekt explained that if the Bitcoin cycle follows the 2020 pattern, the market will likely peak in October, which is 550 days after the Bitcoin halving in April 2024.