Bitcoin is ‘supporting the dollar rather than acting as a hedge’

Bitcoin’s (BTC) ability to serve as a hedge against the U.S. dollar is becoming less certain, with data indicating the crypto‘s movement is aligning with the currency.

Specifically, Bitcoin’s correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has surged to 0.25, the highest among major macro assets, marking an increase from May’s 0.15, according to a June 20 report by Binance Research shared with Finbold

Historically, the maiden digital currency has moved opposite to the dollar or remained unaffected.

“This rare shift suggests that BTC may currently be reacting to the same liquidity conditions supporting the dollar rather than acting as a hedge against it,” the report noted.

Bitcoin’s correlation with macro assets

The report also revealed a 0.33 correlation between Bitcoin and 10-year Treasury yields, indicating the cryptocurrency’s potential as an inflation hedge.

On the other hand, BTC’s relation with the S&P 500 has dropped to 0.21, signaling a move away from its earlier equity-like trading pattern.

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s link to gold remains mildly negative at -0.11. While the precious metal tends to respond to traditional risk sentiment and interest rates, Bitcoin is more influenced by liquidity and speculative flows.

“This behaviour suggests that, despite overlapping narratives, Bitcoin and gold have been absorbing macro flows differently — likely driven by Bitcoin’s higher volatility, more speculative positioning, and greater sensitivity to liquidity shifts,” the report stated.

Notably, in 2025, as economic uncertainty grew mostly from trade tariffs, gold has rallied as a safe haven, while Bitcoin mostly held firm above the $100,000 mark.

Bitcoin price analysis

The Binance findings come as Bitcoin faces short-term volatility mainly from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Before the escalation, Bitcoin nearly reached $110,000 but has since retraced.

By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $103,897, down almost 2% in the last 24 hours and over 3% for the week.

Despite the recent price drop, Binance pointed out that demand for the asset remains strong, especially when considering spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

To this end, these products have seen $2.4 billion in net inflows over eight days through June 18, indicating that long-term investors continue to buy the dip.

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