$104,000 BTC in Sight? Bitcoin Braces for Short-Term Test This Week

As the crypto market prepares for another key week, Bitcoin finds itself at a critical juncture. Bitcoin was trading up 1.41% in the last 24 hours to $106,685, after reaching a high of $106,958 in the early Monday trading session. Following a sell-off in the past week that reached lows of $100,377, Bitcoin is set for its fourth straight day of gains.

Near-term resistance is building toward $107,000 as Bitcoin dropped three days in a row last week from a high of $106,901 on June 3. Bitcoin’s price rise also paused at the $106,958 high early Monday.

In a recent tweet, the Swissblock official X account highlighted three potential scenarios for Bitcoin this week.

First, inflation data in the week ahead could unleash volatility. Inflation data is expected to be a key topic later in the week: the latest consumer price index is due out on Wednesday, followed by the producer price index on Friday.

With inflation data set to drop in the coming days, all eyes are on how Bitcoin might respond — and whether bulls can regain control or if a short-term dip is on the horizon. A hotter-than-expected print could trigger concerns over monetary tightening, while softer data may offer room for risk assets to rally.

Second, the bulls are slowly rebuilding structure and regrouping, eager to flip the game. While market sentiment remains cautious, early indications suggest bulls are preparing to flip the script following recent weakness.

Bitcoin faces short-term test

While bulls are regrouping, ready to flip the game with the first steps in, Swissblock noted that a short-term test of the lower range at $104,000 looks likely.

According to Glassnode, on-chain models suggest crucial support zones: the 0.95 SSD quantile at $103,700 and the 0.85 at $95,600, which are levels to watch in case of profit-taking.

The short-term holder cost basis at $97,100 offers key insight. Key thresholds (based on standard deviation bands) sit at $114,800 and $83,200. A breakout or breakdown from this range could define the next major market move.