Bitcoin price has retreated in the past few days, and the futures market points to more downside, potentially to $100,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to $104,650 on Wednesday, June 18, marking a 6.52% decline from its highest level this year. Option traders are increasingly betting on further declines. Data from Deribit shows that the put-to-call volume ratio rose to 2.17, indicating that more traders are buying put options as a hedge.
A put option gives investors the right, but not the obligation, to sell an asset at a specific price within a defined time period. In this case, for contracts expiring on Friday, open interest in put options is concentrated at the $100,000 strike.
Investors remain cautious amid the escalating crisis in the Middle East. In a statement on Tuesday, Donald Trump suggested the U.S. may enter the conflict and potentially target Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The conflict could fuel inflation in the U.S. and globally. Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude prices rose to $76 and $74, respectively, while global shipping costs have also jumped. As a result, the Federal Open Market Committee may opt for a wait-and-see approach, monitoring the impact of geopolitical tensions and Trump’s proposed tariffs.
On a more positive note, Bitcoin demand appears to be rising. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $216 million in inflows on Tuesday, bringing total cumulative inflows to $46.26 billion. In a note, an XBTO analyst said:
“A hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve could strengthen the US dollar and trigger a test of the psychological $100,000 mark. The geopolitical situation remains a wildcard, where further deterioration would likely trigger another move down across risk assets.”
Bitcoin price has formed a double-top pattern
On the eight-hour chart, BTC has pulled back from a high of $110,500 to around $104,530. It has formed a double-top pattern with a neckline at $100,300, a formation often associated with bearish breakouts.
Bitcoin has also fallen below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average and is approaching the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator has dropped below the zero line.
As such, Bitcoin may continue falling, with the next level to watch being $100,300, about 4.2% below current prices. A break below that support could open the door to a deeper decline toward the 38.2% retracement level at $97,560.
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