Bitcoin price could fall to $92K if demand keeps dropping

Bitcoin’s price momentum appears to be losing steam as on-chain and market indicators suggest softening demand, raising the possibility of a deeper pullback. 

According to a June 19 article by CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno, the pace of Bitcoin (BTC) accumulation has notably slowed over the past few weeks following its rise toward an all-time high near $112,000 in May.

Apparent demand growth has dropped to 118,000 BTC over the past 30 days, almost half of the 228,000 BTC growth observed in late May. Moreno also noted that whales and U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds have cut their Bitcoin purchases by over 50%, while short-term holders have shed 800,000 BTC since May 27, a sign that new investor participation is waning.

Following Bitcoin’s failure to hold above $110,000, futures data shows a tactical shift as traders locked in profits and started new short positions. As Bitcoin fell toward the $105,000 range, there was a rise in short interest, according to CryptoQuant’s Traders’ Behavior Dominance metric.

Darkfost, another CryptoQuant analyst, pointed out that the true problem is stagnating demand, even though realized profits are still small, less than $1 billion, and do not yet indicate a market peak. The current market is balanced, with no major profit-taking or panic selling, but also lacking the strong demand that typically fuels the next leg higher.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at about $104,707, down 6.5% from its peak of $111,814 on May 22 and nearly flat for the day. The price has fluctuated between $103,645 and $108,771 over the last week.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is trading just below the 20-day Bollinger Band midline, which is at $105,854, and faces resistance around the $108,000 zone. The Bollinger Bands are slightly narrowing, indicating decreasing volatility, while the relative strength index is at 47.75, indicating neutral momentum.

Since the May high, the price has been in a short-term downward trend and has not been able to recover the upper range of the consolidation zone. Should demand weaken further, Bitcoin may test the $101,000 support, with the $92,000 level, marked by CryptoQuant’s Traders’ On-chain Realized Price, acting as the next major cushion.

A breakout above $108,000 on high volume, which might re-target the $111,814 high, is necessary for a bullish scenario. On the other hand, a decline below $101,000 might indicate the start of more significant retracements.