BTC Consolidation Persists, Here’s What Could Trigger a Breakout

Bitcoin remains in a tight consolidation range with muted price action, as traders await tonight’s FOMC decision. A surprise rate cut could act as a major catalyst, potentially triggering a sharp upward breakout.

Technical Analysis

By ShayanMarkets

The Daily Chart

BTC continues to trade within a tight range, showing subdued market activity and low volatility. The asset remains locked between the $116K and $123K levels, reflecting a temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers. This sideways movement signals market indecision ahead of a major macro catalyst.

The $114K level, which aligns with the lower boundary of Bitcoin’s multi-month ascending channel, serves as a crucial support. As long as this trendline holds, the bullish structure remains intact, and a retest of the $123K resistance is anticipated. However, if this level is breached, a deeper correction toward the $111K support zone becomes the more likely scenario.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the lower timeframe, Bitcoin’s lack of direction is more pronounced. The asset continues to consolidate within a bullish continuation flag pattern, a classic sign of a temporary correction during an uptrend.

All eyes are now on the FOMC meeting scheduled for tonight. With rising political tension and pressure from former President Trump calling for aggressive rate cuts, the possibility of a surprise decision has grown. Should the Federal Reserve announce an unexpected rate cut, Bitcoin could respond with a sharp rally, potentially breaking out of its current range and aiming for a new all-time high.

Until then, the market is likely to remain muted as traders wait for confirmation from macroeconomic policy developments.

On-chain Analysis

By ShayanMarkets

Over the past few months, BTC experienced periods of significant futures market activity, especially during rallies approaching the $70K–$90K levels. These runs coincided with heating and overheating phases, as shown by the dense red clusters, which historically have led to corrections or consolidations.

However, the most recent market behavior paints a different picture. Despite Bitcoin trading close to the $123K mark, the volume bubble map indicates a transition back into neutral and even cooling phases (grey and green bubbles), suggesting reduced speculative pressure in the futures market. This cooling off, despite elevated prices, highlights a reset in leverage and de-risking behavior among traders.

From an on-chain perspective, such market cooling after overheating is often a healthy signal, indicating that the price is being supported by organic demand rather than excessive leverage. The fact that Bitcoin has climbed above $100K while futures volume shows signs of normalization strengthens the bullish outlook, as the market avoids the pitfalls of overheated speculation.

If the current trend of low speculative pressure persists, BTC could be poised for another impulsive leg to the upside, potentially toward a new all-time high beyond $123K.