global tensions arising, will gold finally go to a new ATH?

The Iran and Israel war has further escalated as the USA has also joined this ongoing conflict.

This news had a mixed impact on financial markets, with gold still trading in a tight range. 

The bias in gold remains buy, however, a retracement can be expected this week to major key levels.  Let’s discuss the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in this XAUUSD weekly forecast from June 23rd to June 27th, 2025.

Key economic events of this week

Some significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week that are expected to impact XAUUSD. 

Mon, Jun 23 – Flash Manufacturing PMI & Flash Services PMI

Both PMIs were below expectations, suggesting that the economy may be slowing down. As expectations of a rate hike lessen, this might devalue the USD and drive up gold prices.

Tue, Jun 24 – Fed Chair Powell Testifies

Powell’s stance on rates and inflation will have a significant impact on gold. Hawkish comments could have the opposite effect of dovish ones, which could weaken the dollar and increase gold.

Wed, Jun 25 – Fed Chair Powell Testifies

An extension of the testimony. Gold might rise in anticipation of a more dovish or cautious monetary policy from Powell.

Thu, Jun 26 – Final GDP q/q & Unemployment Claims

Weak growth is confirmed by a flat GDP; a deteriorating labor market is suggested by slightly rising jobless claims. Both might help gold because of bets on rate cuts and the recession.

Fri, Jun 27 – Core PCE Price Index m/m

Market sentiment will be influenced by this important inflation indicator. A light reading will probably increase gold prices, while a hot reading could damage them by rekindling concerns about rate hikes.

Gold HTF Overview

The HTF overview for gold is the same as last week. The closest liquidity in gold’s weekly chart is still to the upside, which is at $3500, and the internal liquidity is at $3120. The chances of $3500 hitting before $3120 are high due to fundamental and technical factors as well.

Gold Forecast for June 23rd to June 27th, 2025

Gold is slowly moving in a downward channel with no clear trend as of now. The direction is bearish due to the channel, and the first zone to buy gold is coming up at the 1h order block of $3332-3318.

The next buying opportunity in gold is coming on the 4h support of $3313-3293. This zone is the last major support in gold, which can give a good bounce, as breaking this zone can take gold deep into the 3200 area.

Selling in gold can be expected from the $3410-3424 level due to a 4h order block and FVG.

Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation

To conclude, gold can give both buys and sells this week. Lower time frames are suggesting sells, while higher time frames are still favoring a buy position in gold. 

Resistance Levels

• $3410-3424 – 4h order block and FVG 

Support Levels 

• $3313-3293 – 4h support
• $3332-3318 – 1h order block