XRP could be gearing up for a major rally despite weak ETF reaction

XRP price continued to slide for the second straight day despite getting approval for the first spot ETF listing in Canada.

According to recent reports, asset manager Purpose Investments has received final approval from Canadian regulators to launch the country’s first spot XRP ETF. Trading for the Purpose XRP ETF will begin on Wednesday, June 18, on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker XRPP.

Despite the approval giving Canadian investors an easy and regulated way to access XRP, it didn’t lift sentiment, and the token stayed under pressure. XRP (XRP) price dropped 3.4% in the past 24 hours to $2.17, with its market cap falling to $127 billion.

The decline came as the broader crypto market cap dropped 3.6% over the past day, with Bitcoin (BTC) and other major tokens also sliding amid weak overall sentiment.

This was largely driven by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and growing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. Rising inflation risks have dimmed hopes of imminent rate cuts, prompting a risk-off mood across financial markets.

Despite the bearish short-term pressure, several bullish catalysts are emerging for XRP.

A recent court filing in the SEC v. Ripple case revealed that both parties have agreed to a $50 million settlement. If approved, this settlement could finally resolve the long-standing legal battle that has overshadowed XRP’s regulatory clarity and hindered its broader adoption.

In addition, former CFTC Chair Chris Giancarlo, appointed during the Trump administration, proposed the idea of issuing government bonds for crypto assets such as Bitcoin and XRP. He shared these insights during the XRPL Apex 2025 conference in Singapore, signaling a growing policy shift in favor of regulated crypto finance.

Ripple also continues to push forward on product and regional expansion. The company is preparing for the rollout of its RLUSD stablecoin, a key addition to its ecosystem. Simultaneously, Ripple has been strengthening regulatory footholds in key crypto hubs like Dubai and Singapore, which could enhance XRP’s cross-border utility.

From a technical standpoint, XRP is forming a multi-month bull pennant pattern on the 1-week/USDT chart. This bullish continuation setup typically precedes a breakout, with price targets based on the length of the initial flagpole.

In XRP’s case, a breakout could project a move to $4.61, representing a 114% gain from current levels.

Supporting this thesis, technical analyst Mikybull Crypto drew parallels with XRP’s 2017 chart structure, noting that a similar bull pennant breakout preceded a rally of over 1,300% to all-time highs near $3.40.

Momentum indicators, however, present a mixed picture. On the weekly chart, a golden cross has recently formed, with the 50-day SMA crossing above the 200-day SMA, typically a bullish signal suggesting trend continuation.

In contrast, the daily chart has turned more bearish. The 200-day SMA has crossed above the 50-day SMA, forming a death cross, which is viewed as a bearish reversal indicator in technical analysis. In addition, both the MACD and RSI are trending lower, reinforcing short-term downside risks.

Investor uncertainty was further amplified after the SEC delayed its decision on Franklin Templeton’s proposed spot XRP ETF, extending the review period into late July. The delay, coupled with market-wide caution, has likely contributed to XRP’s underperformance.

If XRP loses the key psychological support at $2.00, further downside toward $1.62, its April 2025 low, appears likely before any sustained rebound. Conversely, holding above this level and breaking above the pennant’s resistance could reaffirm the bullish scenario and pave the way toward a retest of cycle highs.