Polymarket and Kalshi Traders Bet Big on Ethereum’s $6K Moonshot

Ethereum ( ETH) has had a bumpy year, tumbling 24% since Jan. 1 and sitting a whopping 48% below its peak price. But don’t count ETH out just yet—prediction markets are buzzing with optimism. Over on Polymarket, 25% of traders are betting ETH will hit $3,000 by the end of the month, while Kalshi’s wagers also show plenty of love for the crypto world’s No. 2 player.

Ethereum’s Future Divides Prediction Markets—$1K Crash or $6K Rally?

Ether’s $306 billion market cap makes up 9.3% of the crypto world’s $3.27 trillion total—but it hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows. Compared to last month, it’s dipped 0.5%, and it’s a steep 36% below where it stood six months ago, with a 24% drop since the start of the year. Priced at $2,532 per ETH, it’s also trading at roughly 0.02402 BTC. Still, a Polymarket bet with $4.58 million in action shows a 25% probability that $3,000 per ETH could be on the table by June 30.

Roughly 12% of traders are betting on ethereum hitting $3,200, while a hefty 56% say $2,300 is the more plausible outcome. A separate prediction on Polymarket with $6.45 million in volume speculating on ETH’s price by year’s end puts the odds of a $4,000 tag at 38%. There’s also a 24% likelihood ethereum climbs to $5,000, and a 16% chance it flies up to $6,000. That said, an equally weighted 16% wager predicts ETH could tumble to $1,000 by Dec. 31.

Over at Kalshi’s prediction platform, the odds currently place ethereum reaching $4,000 or more in 2025 at 35%—a 3-point uptick. The forecast for a move to $4,500 has grown to 31%, reflecting a 7-point gain. Meanwhile, a $5,000 target appears less convincing, with only 21% believing it’ll happen this year. So far, $321,301 has been staked across these outcomes.

With millions riding on a range of possible outcomes, ethereum’s path forward is anything but settled. The tension between bearish short-term performance and bullish long-term speculation reveals a market gripped by uncertainty—but also potential. Whether ETH rebounds or retreats, one thing is clear: traders aren’t backing down from the bet that big moves still lie ahead.