Bigger than Coca-Cola? If Tether went public, it could reach a $515B valuation

A recent analysis posted by Artemis CEO Jon Ma has sparked discussion about Tether’s potential market value, suggesting that if the company were to go public, its valuation could reach $515 billion. This figure would place Tether among the world’s largest corporations by market capitalization, ahead of well-known names such as Costco and Coca-Cola.

Jon Ma’s analysis draws several key comparisons and assumptions to arrive at this valuation. USDC issuer Circle recently went public with a market cap of $30 billion. Ma’s financial model projects Circle to reach $410 billion in EBITDA for 2025, which equates to a 69.3x EBITDA multiple.

Tether reported $13 billion in net profits for 2024, with $7 billion coming from Treasuries and repos and $5 billion from unrealized gains on Bitcoin and gold holdings, the latter of which were not included in EBITDA calculations, causing Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino to call the valuation:

“A bit bearish considering our current (and increasing) Bitcoin + Gold treasury.”

He did, however, acknowledge that $515 billion is a “beautiful number,” and that he was “humbled” by the valuation. Comments from Bitcoin advocates and entrepreneurs Jack Mallers and Anthony Pompliano suggested the valuation should be at least $1 trillion.

How Tether’s $515 billion valuation was calculated

Jon Ma’s projection assumes Tether will increase its USDT supply by $50–$60 billion in 2025, resulting in an average supply of $170 billion. With an average Federal Funds Rate of 4.2%, this would imply a projected 2025 EBITDA of approximately $7.4 billion. By applying Circle’s current 69.3x EBITDA multiple to Tether’s projected EBITDA, the analysis reaches $515 billion.

Jon Ma notes, however, that using Circle’s current EBITDA multiple is a strong assumption and may not be sustainable, highlighting the speculative nature of the calculation.

Tether, the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, has become a pillar of the crypto ecosystem. USDT is widely used for trading, remittances, and as a stable store of value, with its supply growing steadily as demand for stablecoins increases. Under the leadership of Ardoino, Tether has maintained its position as the largest stablecoin by market cap and third-largest cryptocurrency behind Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Ardoino, who also serves as CTO of Bitfinex, has emphasized the importance of transparency and security in Tether’s operations. The company’s profits are primarily derived from interest earned on its reserve assets, which include U.S. Treasuries and repos, as well as gains from Bitcoin and gold holdings.

Over the years, Tether has expanded its product offerings to include stablecoins pegged to other currencies, such as the euro (EURT), gold (XAUt), the Mexican peso (MXNT), and the offshore Chinese yuan (CNHT).

Tether’s stablecoins are used by millions of individuals and institutions worldwide, facilitating efficient cross-border transactions and serving as a bridge between traditional finance and the crypto market. The company has also invested in technology and sustainable energy initiatives, further integrating itself into the global economy.

While the $515 billion valuation is a theoretical exercise based on current market multiples, it highlights Tether’s substantial influence in the crypto and traditional finance sectors. However, whether Tether becomes one of crypto’s next IPO success stories remains to be seen.