Much-Anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Data Released

The economic data expected to be released in the US has finally been shared:

• Average hourly earnings: +0.4% (expected: +0.3%)
• Nonfarm payrolls: +139K (expected: +130K)
• Annual salary increase: +3.9% (expected: +3.7%)
• Unemployment rate: 4.2% (expected: 4.2%)
• Private sector employment: +140K (expected: +120K)
• Manufacturing employment: -8K (expected: -5K)
• Average working hours: 34.3 hours
• Labor force participation: 62.4% (expected: 62.6%)

According to LSEG data, employment growth expectations ranged from 75,000 to 190,000.

In a Reuters poll, the market expectation was 130,000, a significant drop from the 177,000 figure released in April. The unemployment rate was expected to remain stable at 4.2%.

Bank of America (BofA) had expected a 150,000-plus increase, above expectations, anticipating resilience in the labor market. The bank says this could prompt the Fed to keep interest rates steady for an extended period. BofA analysts say markets are more focused on the “recession side of stagflation.”

On the other hand, UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan said that many forecasts were below market expectations. “Companies may have slowed hiring due to uncertainty about trade policies. However, this is unlikely to lead to an increase in layoffs. This means that rate cuts will have limited impact at the moment. However, if consumer demand weakens, rate cuts will become more critical,” Donovan said.

*This is not investment advice.