Solana faces key rejection at high time-frame resistance — is another drop coming?

Solana’s recent bounce has brought it face-to-face with one of the most important resistance levels on the chart. With multiple confluences stacking at this zone, the reaction here could dictate whether the next move is a breakout or a breakdown.

Solana (SOL) has seen a notable bounce in recent sessions after finding key support just below the $100 mark. This rebound came off a well-defined daily support level, sparking renewed interest from bulls. However, the relief rally has now brought Solana right into a significant high-time-frame resistance zone, and early signs suggest the move may be losing steam. With volume declining and price stalling at a technically heavy region, the current reaction could be the beginning of a deeper retracement unless bulls reclaim critical levels soon.

Key points

• Solana is facing resistance at the point of control around $149, the most traded price of the 2024 range.
• This resistance aligns with the VWAP and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, adding strong confluence.
• Price bounced from sub-$100 levels, but volume remains weak, and no strong follow-through has emerged.

The current area around $149 marks a key structural level: the point of control of the entire range that has developed since the start of 2024. This is the price zone where the highest amount of trading activity has occurred, making it a magnet for both support and resistance depending on positioning. What strengthens the case for this zone as a major barrier is its overlap with the VWAP anchored from the yearly open and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the entire move. In short, Solana is not just reacting to a round number — it’s reacting to a confluence-heavy resistance that has been built over months.

Adding to the bearish pressure is the clear lack of volume on the recent rally. While price has moved higher, it’s done so with declining participation, which is often a red flag for the sustainability of a move. So far, there’s been no decisive breakout beyond the point of control — just a tap and fade. Lower time frames are already showing signs of rejection, and unless there’s a sudden influx of volume and momentum, this looks more like a reactive bounce rather than the start of a true reversal. This sets the stage for a potential move back down into previously tested support zones.

If the rejection from $149 continues, the next logical level is the value area low around $113. This is where price previously found stability, and it could offer a brief pause or bounce. However, if that region fails, the $100 level — which acted as strong support on the previous move — becomes vulnerable. A second test of this area could play out differently, especially if sellers gain control. That would open the door to a deeper decline and potentially a new local low. The key invalidation for this bearish scenario would be a clean and sustained reclaim of $149, which would flip this range midpoint into support and open a path toward $209.

What to expect in the coming price action

As long as Solana remains below the $149 point of control, the risk of further downside is elevated. The rejection appears to be taking hold, and unless bulls can quickly reclaim this resistance with conviction, price is likely to rotate back toward $113 and potentially $100. The trend remains neutral-to-bearish in the short term, and traders should remain cautious until a stronger structure emerges.