Final lap before spot Bitcoin ETF in play

Analysts opined that the U.S. SEC would likely approve spot BTC ETFs in early January 2024, with eyes on the deadline for a decision on ARK Invest’s application. 

ETF expert Nate Geraci surmised that the final response date for ARK Invest’s joint filing with 21Shares for a spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF further strengthens predictions of approval within the first two weeks of January 2024.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has until Jan. 10 to decide whether to accept or deny ARK Invest’s bid. Geraci speculated that this hints at a potential green light from the SEC since the first spot BTC ETF was filed 125 months ago. 

As reported by crypto.news, discussions between issuers like BlackRock and the SEC moved into their final stages, with both parties reportedly negotiating over a redemption model for the funds.

The options available are known as cash creates, which requires providers to hold the fiat equivalent of assets offered in the ETF, and in-kind, which does not mandate holding parallel cash reserves. Both translate to different consequences regarding operating costs and taxation.

Michael Sonnenshein, CEO of Grayscale, voiced bullish remarks about filings receiving the nod from Gary Gensler’s SEC, and ARK Invest boss Cathie Wood said approval would signal the ultimate endorsement for institutional investors to deploy capital toward Bitcoin and possibly the broader digital asset ecosystem. 

Wood’s comments echoed statements from Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, who expects spot BTC ETFs to usher in billions of dollars in its first year and propel Bitcoin’s price far above its $69,000 all-time high. 

Lars Seier Christensen, co-founder and chairman of Concordium, told crypto.news that a bull run premeditated by the SEC’s approval of BTC ETFs followed by Bitcoin’s halving seemed like “textbook stuff”.

Normally, in traditional financial markets, these types of scenarios aren’t necessarily predictable because experienced participants can anticipate potential developments beyond the obvious. But maybe, due to the immaturity of crypto markets, it will play out as everyone predicts.”

Lars Seier Christensen, co-founder and chairman, Concordium

Christensen advised caution, adding that alternative outcomes would not come as a shock as Bitcoin slid under $41,000 amid a market correction.

I would be very careful, though. I think we will be in for some surprising deviations from the generally predicted path.

Lars Seier Christensen, co-founder and chairman, Concordium